NGFS updated guide on climate scenario analysis

The Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) has released an updated guide on climate scenario analysis for central banks and supervisors, building on the 2020 edition. The revised guide reflects significant methodological progress and best practices in scenario design, data and modelling, with a new emphasis on short-term scenarios to assess near-term financial risks from climate change and evolving policy developments. While retaining the original four-step framework, which includes: (i) identifying objectives and scope; (ii) choosing climate scenarios; (iii) assessing economic and financial impacts; and (iv) communicating and using results; the guide expands on each step with new insights, methodologies and examples. It serves as a practical reference for authorities and financial institutions integrating climate scenario analysis into their risk management frameworks and will continue evolving alongside ongoing sector developments.

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